Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 3.950781 4.621254 5.362555 6.241790 7.254989 8.384742 9.738749
2025-10-19 2.934062 3.841149 4.951738 6.406039 8.254271 10.518315 13.495042
2025-10-26 2.247335 3.234698 4.551088 6.421809 8.997039 12.400293 17.218333
2025-11-02 1.724884 2.696612 4.091360 6.217540 9.349979 13.762393 20.406704
2025-11-09 1.332137 2.243237 3.640097 5.906176 9.449880 14.727063 23.109390
2025-11-16 1.088515 1.959427 3.375637 5.803366 9.804322 16.058900 26.464967
2025-11-23 0.911067 1.743925 3.173330 5.749857 10.202296 17.473057 30.081281
2025-11-30 0.819483 1.657372 3.166277 6.009899 11.133590 19.826430 35.454853
2025-12-07 0.712149 1.519517 3.042803 6.039304 11.658957 21.546850 39.943308
2025-12-14 0.617486 1.387124 2.905446 6.016654 12.076854 23.112169 44.314186
2025-12-21 0.542276 1.279436 2.796570 6.027597 12.549453 24.812844 49.090921
2025-12-28 0.526977 1.296799 2.939529 6.554764 14.075708 28.605900 58.105271
2026-01-04 0.481018 1.239337 2.922426 6.760427 15.008710 31.414042 65.630025
2026-01-11 0.440207 1.186537 2.908007 6.971776 15.985119 34.422601 73.887809
2026-01-18 0.391763 1.105481 2.817087 7.000931 16.578834 36.728482 80.987445
2026-01-25 0.335148 0.991713 2.630803 6.783508 16.602725 37.858795 85.789169
2026-02-01 0.280812 0.872023 2.409222 6.446943 16.309239 38.276856 89.123091
2026-02-08 0.245612 0.797704 2.288237 6.335789 16.520884 39.807170 95.003982
2026-02-15 0.217528 0.737816 2.194351 6.277848 16.849965 41.629079 101.707048
2026-02-22 0.206256 0.726480 2.229305 6.560268 18.050825 45.562235 113.566220
2026-03-01 0.186878 0.685309 2.174172 6.592213 18.621111 48.075386 122.376712
2026-03-08 0.167861 0.641017 2.102507 6.567629 19.041346 50.271590 130.650767
2026-03-15 0.152114 0.604213 2.046693 6.579513 19.559382 52.757132 139.856898